The Passion Predictions aren't authentic

 

The authority, among modern scholars, for this view is to be found in the form critical analyses and conclusions of Rudolf Bultmann. Christian tradition, he affirms, took over certain Jewish materials and put them on the lips of Jesus (e.g. the Marcan Apocalypse): the Christian community also revised or reworked elements from older traditions (e.g. the interpretation of the Sign of Jonah in connection with the person of Jesus, Matt. xii. 40) and even formed logia which reflect its own interests and concerns. Such logia are 'inauthentic' (in the sense that they are not genuine dominical sayings) and, according to Bultmann, they may originally have gained currency as utter ances of the Spirit in the Church, without their ascription to Jesus being initially intended. Sayings like Rev. xvi. 5 (in which the risen Christ speaks) and Rev. iii. 20 show clearly the process of the creation (or, reformulation) of such logia {den Prozefi der Meubildung solcher Herrenworte). These sayings would only gradually {erst allmahlich) have been regarded as prophetic words of the historical Jesus. 'The Church drew no distinction between such utterances by Christian prophets and the sayings of Jesus in the tradition, for the reason that even the dominical sayings in the tradition were not the pronouncements of a past authority, but sayings of the risen Lord who is always a contem porary for the Church.' - David Hill, On the Evidence for the Creative Role of Christian Prophets, Page 1

Yet, despite this, one commonly encounters claims such as, ‘In all probability, the highly specific “predictions” of Jesus’ own death and resurrection (see, for example, Mark 8:31, 9:31, 10:33-34) were created by the church after Easter’ (View of Marcus J. Borg, New Vision, pp. 122, 186), or, ‘The predictions of the suff er ing of the disciples and of Jesus’ martyrdom are usually, and I think correctly, taken as “prophecies” after the event’ (View of E. P. Sanders, Jesus and Judaism , p. 328). Treating the passion predictions in this summary way appears to have played a significant role in designating even the first passion prediction in Mk 8.31 as a vaticinium exeventu . Scholars have argued in one form or another that the ‘passion predictions’ were ‘formulated in retrospect in view of the passion, in order to demonstrate Jesus’ miraculous knowledge of future events and the mysterious decrees of God manifested in them’. (View of Gunther Borkmann,  Jesus of Nazareth , p. 154) - Michael Vicko Zolondek, The Authenticity of the First Passion Prediction and the Origin of Mark 8.31-33, Page 242

Many scholars argue that this prediction is inauthentic. They contend that the passion prediction is too detailed to have been an authentic statement of the historical Jesus, that it is a summary of later Christian beliefs placed on the lips of Jesus, and oftentimes a reconstruction of the tradition-history of Mk 8.31-33 is provided in support of rejecting the passion prediction. - Michael Vicko Zolondek, The Authenticity of the First Passion Prediction and the Origin of Mark 8.31-33, Page 238
FOOTNOTE - See, e.g., Günther Bornkamm, Jesus of Nazareth (trans. Irene and Fraser McLuskey with James M. Robinson; New York: Harper & Row, 1960 [1956]), p. 154; Rudolf Bultmann, Th e History of the Synoptic Tradition (trans. John Marsh; New York: Harper & Row, 1963), p. 152; Erich Dinkler, ‘Peter’s Confession and the “Satan” Saying: Th e Problem of Jesus’ Messiahship’, in James M. Robinson (ed.), Th e Future of Our Religious Past (Chatham: SCM Press, 1971); Robert W. Funk and the Jesus Seminar, Th e Acts of Jesus: Th e Search for the Authentic Deeds of Jesus (San Francisco: HarperCollins, 1998), p. 104; Gerd Lüdemann, Jesus After Two Thousand Years: What He Really Said and Did (New York: Prometheus Books, 2001), pp. 55-57; Gerd Theissen and Annette Merz, Th e Historical Jesus: A Comprehensive Guide (trans. John Bowden; Minneapolis: Fortress Press, 1998), pp. 429, 557.


Based on that criticism, it seems probable that the scene of Jesus predicting his crucifixion is the creation of the Marcan gospel writer. That is, Jesus, in fact, did not predict his crucifixion. If this is the case, then the scene in which the disciples do not understand Jesus' prediction of crucifixion also becomes a fiction. Moreover, Wrede insists that Jesus' prediction of his crucifixion and the portrayal of the disciples' lack of comprehension were both created by Mark as part of the "messianic secret". - Unsok Hur, The Disciples’ Lack of Comprehension in the Gospel of Mark, Page 42

For this reason, I suggest that the disciples' incomprehension at the time of the second miracle of the loaves and fishes (Mark 8:14–21) and at Jesus' transfiguration was invented by the gospel writer to make it more convincing for them not to understand when Jesus predicts his death. The gospel writer is deliberately creating a larger picture of the disciples' ignorance. - Unsok Hur, The Disciples’ Lack of Comprehension in the Gospel of Mark, Page 43


I do not think that the historical Jesus predicted his crucifixion. He certainly does in the Gospels (repeatedly!). But I do not think the “passion predictions” can be established as historical. And you’re right, if he did spend so much time talking about it, certainly they would not have been much surprised! - Bart Ehrman, Ehrman Blog, Comments, January 29, 2021

This is surely history written after the fact to honor a Jesus who was thought to have known all things before they happened. It is unlikely that this is a verbatim prediction from the mouth of Jesus. Most scholars have concluded it is a composition by Mark intended to show Jesus’ fore- knowledge of every detail of his future. But that is not to say that none of it is historical. Jesus well might have told his disciples, based on his reading of the texts of Scripture I have indicated, of the impending trials ahead. If Jesus did come to anticipate his suffering at the hands of his enemies, I am convinced that he expected that he would be saved from death, delivered from the “mouth of the lion” as the Psalmist had predicted (Psalm 22:21). - James D Tabor, Jesus Dynasty, Page 181-182. 

Source: https://sci-hub.box/10.1017/s002868850001479x

Source: https://sci-hub.box/10.1163/174551911x571076

Source: https://sci-hub.box/10.1177/0146107919827483

Source: https://ehrmanblog.org/the-earliest-understandings-of-christ/

Source: https://annas-archive.gl/md5/aef532497eff5ca58ab39db2e6d8b3a2